TUCSON, Ariz. — The FBI’s decision to increase the reward for information on Nancy Guthrie’s whereabouts is drawing analysis from multiple former FBI officials, who say the move reflects both strategy and investigative progression nearly two weeks into the case.
Retired Supervisory Special Agent of the FBI Scott Duffey told Fox News Digital that the increase may be designed to target someone close to whoever is responsible.
“I believe this is the right time to increase the reward,” Duffey said. “My belief is the FBI started high to attract a family member, friend, or colleague of the attackers. The public is typically there to help regardless of an award.”
Drawing on his experience working fugitive cases involving smaller rewards — typically between $2,500 and $5,000 — Duffey said valuable tips often came from insiders.
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“When I worked crimes with lower-level reward amounts, the contacts were from friends or family members. This was typically in fugitive work,” he said.
He noted that the FBI’s Top Ten Most Wanted list carries million-dollar rewards for the same reason.
“You are seeking ‘inside’ information,” Duffey said.
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While leads in the Guthrie case appear steady, Duffey cautioned they may not be meaningful.
“Leads are steady, but probably bogus leads or leads that are considered little value,” he said.
He also emphasized that reward money alone does not solve cases, pointing to a Brown University case that was ultimately resolved because someone “just did the right thing,” not because of reward money.
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Former FBI agent Nicole Parker said increasing the reward is fundamentally about motivating stronger tips.
“So people are more inclined to give more information because if they get more money, then it might be worth it for them,” Parker said. “They’re hoping to generate more quality, credible tips that might lead to the arrest and the location of Nancy Guthrie. And that’s all it comes down to.”
Parker also suggested the move may counter outside attempts to monetize information — referencing a person who allegedly sought Bitcoin in exchange for details.
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Former FBI supervisory special agent Joe Cardinale described the increase not as desperation, but as a natural escalation.
“It’s just a progression of events,” Cardinale said. “You’re now into day 13, almost two weeks into this investigation. We still do not have Nancy Guthrie back.”
Cardinale said increasing the reward may prompt people to re-check security footage and reconsider small details.
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“Increasing it just makes people want to go out there, look at their cameras more, do what they have to do and say, ‘Listen, I’m going to check my cameras. I’m going to see what happens.’”
He also addressed speculation surrounding the Bitcoin demand.
“If I have information, this is how this works,” Cardinale explained. “You contact the FBI. They keep it quiet. If your information leads to the arrest of that person, you’re assigned a number, and you get that money.”
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He noted that legitimate reward procedures prevent extortion attempts.
“If someone is demanding Bitcoin upfront and doesn’t have information, they can be arrested for extortion,” he said.
Cardinale also pointed to investigative developments on the ground.
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“They’re extending the perimeter of their search,” he said, suggesting investigators may be working to eliminate the possibility that another individual seen near a vehicle, possibly carrying two backpacks, is connected.
If that person was located miles away from the original scene, Cardinale said investigators would need to rule it out.
“They should be using dogs, drones, helicopters if they have to, and do grid searches,” he said. “This time they’ll be looking for evidence along the way as well.”
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Cardinale also noted investigators appear to be carefully protecting forensic details, including measurements and physical comparisons gathered from surveillance footage.
“They don’t want anybody knowing what they’re zeroing in on,” he said.
Nancy Guthrie disappearance timeline:
January 31, 2026
Between 9:30–9:45 p.m. – Family drops Nancy off at home
9:50 p.m. – Garage door closes (per authorities)
February 1, 2026
1:47 a.m. – Doorbell camera disconnects
2:12 a.m. – Security camera detects motion
2:28 a.m. – Pacemaker disconnects from phone application
11:56 a.m. – Family checks on Nancy after she misses weekly church livestream gathering
12:03 p.m. — 911 called
12:15 p.m. — sheriff’s deputies arrive at home
